UKRAINE THE NEXT EU MEMBER ?

Gerhard Sabathil, former EU Ambassador, Ukrainian Free University, Munich for the European Society Coudenhove-Kalergi Will Ukraine be the next member of the European Union? This was the most important question I was asked during my first lecture as a professor at the time-honoured Ukrainian Free University in Munich. And my answer was: EU membership is not out of the question, but it would certainly not join alone. Why? In its proposal for accession negotiations with Kiev, the EU Commission fully recognised the country's rapid and convincing progress on the seven criteria from June 2023 for the start of negotiations. Only minority rights (crucial for neighbouring Hungary), administrative reform and the fight against corruption still need to be improved by March if the European Council approves the Commission's enlargement package on 15 December. The review of the 85,000 pages of EU law in the 33 negotiating chapters between Brussels and Kiev officials could then begin. Despite the Russian war of aggression, which is the biggest challenge for an accession country, the Ukrainian tempo has made it clear that it wants to catch up with the four slow negotiating states in the Western Balkans. However, Ukraine must not overtake all four of them, as the EU cannot completely ignore and disappoint the Western Balkans, which have been promised accession for too long. At least Montenegro, which has been negotiating for more than 10 years, would have to be declared ready for accession, especially as Serbia appears unwilling to recognise Kosovo and adjust its relationship with Russia and China to that of the EU, despite having negotiated for almost the same amount of time. Albania and North Macedonia, still at the beginning of their negotiations, can of course prove that they want to keep pace with Ukrainian progress. Conversely, if the negotiations with Montenegro were concluded, the war-torn, geopolitically much more important Ukraine could not be left out. As pacesetters and key countries for each other, both will determine the date of enlargement and it will be interesting to see whether Kiev can realise its accession more quickly than Croatia did at the time. This youngest EU member managed to do so in 8 years from 2005 to 2013. Of course, the biggest obstacle to Ukraine's accession remains Russian aggression. The sooner Putin is obliged to stop the war or give in, the sooner Ukraine will be ready for accession. The frozen conflict and the Russian occupation of Transnistria are no obstacle to Moldova's accession either. Germany and Cyprus are already examples of the admission of divided countries. Ukraine can therefore become an EU member even without control over its entire territory. In due course, the EU will make use of the mutual assistance clause in Article 42.7 of the Treaty. In addition to Ukraine's fundamental legal and economic reforms, which are tantamount to the re-establishment of a state that has only been independent since 1991 and whose significance goes beyond the Orange Revolution of 2004 and the Maidan of 2013, the EU must also regain its strength. Should accession negotiations fail on 15 December due to the veto of one country against the unanimity of the 27 EU members, this would be a huge problem for the credibility of the Political Union and for the security of the continent.